President Donald Trump is rattling world markets once again as his quest to acquire Greenland, one way or another ratchets ups with declarations of added tariffs on various European countries.
On Saturday, Trump stated that until a deal regarding Greenland was not reached, the following countries will be the target of an economic attack: Denmark, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Norway, Netherlands, and Finland. While Greenland holds a fair amount of atonomy, they were not on the list.
If things do not go the President’s way, an additional 10% tariff on goods from these countries will commence on February 1st. This will increase to 25% on June 1st.
The European Union has likened the threat as blackmail. The UK has called it totally wrong.
Of course, all of these countries are US allies and part of NATO (~France).
The President is well-known by now for his bombastic approach, frequently reversing course, if he gets his way or not. Some have criticized his declarations as pure posturing and Trump Always Chickens Out (TACO).
While the US has a history of acquiring territories and many agree that a stronger partnership with Greenland makes strategic sense due to the looming threat of China and Russia, reports indicate his bullying tactics may be undermining the objective.
France, and Germany have threatened to retailiate. PM Keir Starmer has worried about a potential trade war which will benefit no one, including the US.
Meanwhile predictions markets are leaning toward the TACO outcome.
Polymarket shows today that Trump has a 21% chance of acquiring Greenland before 2027. While the probability has risen in recent days it still indicates a lack of confidence in Trump’s tactics.
Kalshi is a bit more optimistic. The question posed “will Trump buy at least part of Greenland” indicates a 13% probability before May 1, 226, 28% before 2027 and 41% before January 20, 2029.
A poll conducted on January 14 by Quinnipiac shows limited support by US citizens:
- 86% to 9% they would oppose the United States trying to take Greenland by military force;
- 55% to 37% they would oppose the United States trying to buy Greenland.
If anything, Trump is unpredictable and he has shown a knack for quickly reversing statements when popular opinion appears insurmountable.
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