YouHodler market analyst Tony Severino recently shared several predictions for BTC, Ethereum, and where the crypto markets could head throughout 2026.
Based on numbers and charts, do you have any thoughts on the changes in the crypto market’s structure over the past 12 months, and how it may continue to evolve in 2026?
“Make no mistake, 2026 will be Bitcoin’s most decisive year yet. 2025 was characterized by confusion thanks to macro backdrop uncertainty and Trump’s tariff tantrums. Bitcoin’s 2025 yearly candlestick will close as a Doji, highlighting this uncertainty and indecision about the direction of Bitcoin.
“A Doji is typically a pause in a trend that is followed by a reversal or strong continuation. Simply put, Bitcoin will prove the four-year-cycle remains with a bear market, or break the cyclical pattern with a renewed bull run.”
What do sentiment indicators (funding, options skew, fear and greed equivalents, volatility indexes) suggest about early 2026?
“A storm is coming. Volatility has started to stir on the lowest timeframes, but higher timeframes show the market is still unusually calm. A spark is waiting to ignite this compression into an explosion.
“Sentiment remains at fearful extremes. While this can be a catalyst for a sustained bounce in a bull market, fear and panic measures stay elevated throughout the duration of a bear market.”
For BTC, what key levels are defining the end-of-year structure, range boundaries, moving averages, trendlines, Fibonacci zones?
“Bitcoin, by definition, is in an uptrend. A lower low must be made to confirm a downtrend and change into a bear market. This makes $74,000 a critical support zone that bulls must defend to keep BTC bullish.
“Overhead resistance is stacked, however. Bitcoin may make an attempt to reclaim the 50-week moving average, which is located at around $102,000. $100,000 will act as a key psychological barrier for price. The psychology around $100,000 per BTC makes it an ideal zone for a bull trap. Above $100,000 could embolden bulls with a “we’re so back” mentality, which blinds them to a potential reversal back down to new lows. If bulls are able to reclaim $100,000 and hold the support line for weeks to months, any chance of a bear market will likely be cancelled.”
For ETH, is the chart showing relative strength vs. BTC or divergence?
“At the moment, Ethereum remains relatively weak compared to Bitcoin. However, this is about to change dramatically. The ETHBTC pair suggests a reversal has taken place and is about to show its true form, with Ethereum outperforming Bitcoin for a more extended phase.
“One word of caution: if the cryptocurrency market enters a downtrend and bear market, this outperformance could be more associated with ETHUSD holding better than BTCUSD, rather than ETHUSD growing faster than BTCUSD. Regardless of the overall market trend, this mismatch in Bitcoin versus Ethereum highlights the fact that even in a bear market, there will be plenty of trading opportunities to exploit for a return.”
What does ETH/BTC ratio suggest about capital rotation heading into 2026?
“The ETH/BTC ratio could suggest capital could rotate out of Bitcoin and into Ethereum. A separate catalyst related to Bitcoin could dampen sentiment around the top cryptocurrency, leaving Ethereum to shine.
“Alternatively, Ethereum could simply be far more oversold than Bitcoin, allowing Bitcoin to reset while Ethereum continues to build a foundation. If Ethereum can revitalize crypto market sentiment, it may finally create the perfect storm situation for an unexpected altcoin season. If Ethereum’s strength fails to ignite interest in altcoins, we may be witnessing the market purging projects without true potential.”
What technical indicators best highlight institutional accumulation or distribution in 2025 (volume profile, OBV, block trades, ETF-related flows)?
“ETF-flows and the growth of large BTC wallets are the best indicators of institutional price action. Fund flows hit negative records in November as Bitcoin suffered its largest drawdown since 2022. Fund flows have since flipped positive, pointing to institutional dip buying.
“It isn’t yet clear if the positive flows will keep growing into 2026. How Bitcoin reacts after stabilizing from this latest selloff will influence how institutions approach the top cryptocurrency in the new year. New highs will cement the continuation of a bull market, and inspire additional institutional inflows. Failing to reclaim $100,000 and institutions could start dumping again. Momentum-based technical indicators such as the MACD and Relative Strength Index point to either bearish downside or sideways consolidation, making the bull case a less probable, but not impossible.”
Looking at Q1 2026, what are your primary scenarios (breakout, consolidation, retest, etc) and what level ranges define each?
“Q1 will show us the way for the rest of the year. Considering high timeframe momentum and four-year-cycle timing and dynamics, there is a higher probability that Bitcoin is entering a bear market. Thus, expectations are that the current bounce in BTCUSD will fail to reclaim $100,000 and higher. This failure would be a significant warning sign that the bull market is indeed over.
“A lower low below $74,000 would confirm the bear market. Losing $74,000 would make the next downside target around $53,000. At that point, higher timeframe technical indicators would reach levels oversold enough to begin to consider a true bear market bottom is in.”
Which indicators will you track most closely in Q1 2026 to confirm or invalidate your view?
“The most important technical indicators I am watching are related to momentum. Momentum persists. Even when a car hits its brakes to avoid an accident, strong enough momentum could push the vehicle towards a crash.
“It will take time for bearish momentum to turn bullish. For example, the six-week LMACD just confirmed a bearish crossover. On average, it takes between 200 and 365 days from the signal until a bottom is in historically. It also takes as much as 860 days after a bearish crossover before a bullish crossover forms.
“I’d have to begin to see the monthly LMACD lines converge and close in on a bullish crossover before I’d consider a bear market thesis invalidated.”